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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to CAR 20, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model