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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 45

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 35

What Actually Happened

(3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. to CAR 40 for 5 yards (24-J.Norman). PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham Jr., Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model