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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 35 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to NYG 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham Jr. to NYG 34 for 21 yards (84-E.Dickson, 53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model