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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 35 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by NYG-20-P.Amukamara at NYG 45. 20-P.Amukamara to CAR 46 for 9 yards (9-G.Gano).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model