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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 41

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.62 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP