Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 35 – New York Giants 28

(4:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to NYG 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.75 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model