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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 33

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model