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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 59

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(14:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model