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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP