Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(3:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model