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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model