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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 10 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SEA 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model