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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 10 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 6-T.Coons 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model