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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model