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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DET 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 15-G.Tate to DET 43 for 14 yards (58-O.Gwacham).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model