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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 3 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 24, Center-47-J.Drescher. 15-G.Tate to DET 31 for 7 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model