Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 3 – Detroit Lions 28

(10:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 34, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model