Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 68

Detroit Lions 28 – New Orleans Saints 3

(7:42) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NO 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Cooks ran ob at NO 31 for 6 yards (95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model