Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 92

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(10:32) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to NO 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 92, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model