Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 20 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-B.Watson pushed ob at NO 33 for 9 yards (59-T.Whitehead). NO-82-B.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 9, YAC 0 Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

What Happened

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.49 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP