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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 20 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead to DET 23 for 12 yards (24-N.Lawson; 32-J.Ihedigbo). Pass 3, YAC 9

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP