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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 8-T.Masthay punts 57 yards to LV 22, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model