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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP