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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray up the middle to GB 28 for 3 yards (90-B.Raji).

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model