Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Green Bay Packers 24

(3:25) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to GB 5, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-21-D.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model