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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 7-M.King punts 24 yards to GB 27, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model