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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP