Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to LV 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-J.Ross to LV 26 for -1 yards (22-A.Ripkowski). PENALTY on LV-75-S.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model