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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 45-M.Reece to LV 35 for -1 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.14 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model