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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay, RECOVERED by LV-50-C.Lofton at LV 27. 50-C.Lofton to LV 39 for 12 yards (98-L.Guion).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model