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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP