Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(4:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to KC 36, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.81 EP
48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model