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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to BAL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model