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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to KC 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model