Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

(1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Givens (30-J.Fleming).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.54 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model