4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:06) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to BAL 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-K.Clay to BAL 37 for 10 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model