Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(1:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch up the middle to BAL 24 for 7 yards (49-D.Sorensen). Koch tries a fake punt.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.10 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP