4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon pushed ob at LAC 14 for 1 yard (36-T.Lippett).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -2.27 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model