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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to LAC 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 42 for 11 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model