4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-D.Parker to MIA 33 for 10 yards (26-P.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.14 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP