4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 14-J.Landry to LAC 47 for 14 yards (26-P.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model