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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at LAC 11 for 34 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model