Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

(2:41) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to LAC 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 45 for 18 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model