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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 5-M.Scifres punts 28 yards to MIA 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry to MIA 22 for no gain (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model