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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 4-M.Darr punts 32 yards to LAC 39, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model