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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to NE 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 5 yards (89-P.Supernaw). FUMBLES (89-P.Supernaw), RECOVERED by TEN-37-C.Riggs at NE 26. 37-C.Riggs to NE 26 for no gain (37-J.Richards). Penalty on NE-26-L.Ryan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP