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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NE 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 21 for no gain (37-C.Riggs).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP