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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model