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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 30

New England Patriots 24 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model