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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 20

New England Patriots 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model